When analyzing a project, it's crucial to have a terminal to monitor its evolution over time in order to gauge the health of the underlying assets. Equally important is being able to forecast how the entire economy will evolve in the future.
In this post, we will explore using the Cenit Simulator as a token terminal to price effectively and maximize the returns on our investments.
As an example, we will focus on a project that has seen significant growth in recent months: Unibot. Unibot offers seamless and lightning-fast trading on the go with its web app and Telegram bot, positioning itself as a user-friendly solution in the trading ecosystem.
In any sound investment, it's essential to first review the project's underlying factors. For this post, we're concentrating on the economics of Unibot, while the evaluation of the product and the team is left to the user's due diligence (reminder: this is not financial advice, make your own financial research too!).
The fundamental data for Unibot can be sourced from https://dune.com/whale_hunter/unibot-revenue. At the time of writing the average daily volume (7-day moving average) stands at 7.4 million USD. Out of that trading volume, 1% is charged as protocol fees. Annualizing the average daily volume, this translates into a traded volume of 2.701 billion USD per year and an annual revenue of 24.3 million.
Recently, the protocol has seen significant growth, particularly with its new market opening on Solana. Currently 72% of trading volume in Unibot comes from Solana, and the remaining 28% from Ethereum.
With a market cap of around 51 million USD, this results in a price to fee (PF) ratio of approximately 2.
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The Unibot token is fully in circulation, with about 10% allocated for market making. The main utility for the Unibot token involves the distribution of 40% of transaction fees to token holders, derived from the 1% fee over the traded volume. Not all users are eligible for revenue sharing; only those with a balance of 10 UNIBOT or more can participate. In addition, UNIBOT holders will receive a percentage of all the UNIBOT traded, although we will not calculate the effect of that for this analysis.
A notable recent announcement from Unibot revealed that 50% of their earnings from the Solana revenue stream will go to UNISOL holders. This new token will be mainly distributed to UNIBOT holders, minimizing dilution. For the purposes of this analysis, however, we will focus on the original token dynamics, effectively halving the projected revenue for our evaluations.
At the Cenit dashboard, a multitude of metrics await that are instrumental in the analysis and forecasting of token performance. By utilizing our terminal, investors and analysts can gain insights into various aspects of a token's ecosystem:
Additionally, the platform supports customization, enabling users to monitor extra metrics crucial for their analysis. Whether it's detailed DeFi metrics, social sentiment, or other unique indicators you're interested in, our platform can accommodate your needs.
Our platform allows you to forecast organic token demand, focusing purely on underlying fundamentals and setting aside speculative factors. This can be achieved through two distinct methodologies: the continuous monitoring tool, and normal simulations. In this post, we'll leverage the continuous monitoring tool to project the trajectory of the Unibot token.
In our analysis, we explore two distinct scenarios for Unibot's future: one assumes no further growth in trading volume, and the other predicts the project's volume doubling annually over the next three years. These simulations are based on the market expecting a 15% Annual Percentage Yield (APY), which is quite conservative. In this context, users will adjust their holdings—selling or buying Unibot tokens—to achieve this APY. If the investment yield exceeds expectations, the market will naturally seek equilibrium. It's noteworthy that Unibot currently anticipates offering a 20% APY to token holders.
The results of the simulation can be seen here
Under these assumptions, the simulations forecast a promising future for the Unibot token:
These projections highlight the potential for Unibot's revenue streams to maintain or even exceed current levels. As we continue to monitor these trends, or think of adding new utilities to the token, the role of a token terminal in guiding investment decisions becomes increasingly evident.
This analysis underscores the utility of the Cenit Simulator as a powerful tool in your investment strategy toolkit, allowing for detailed simulations of various market conditions and their potential impact on token economics. By leveraging such advanced forecasting, investors can better navigate the complexities of the crypto market, making informed decisions that align with their investment goals.
Remember, while our platform offers sophisticated predictive capabilities, it's essential to conduct your research and consider all market variables. The future is inherently uncertain, and while simulations can provide valuable insights, they are based on assumptions that may evolve over time.
Utilize the Cenit Simulator to explore a wide range of scenarios and maximize your investment strategy by staying informed and ahead of market trends.